A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
